Luther Burden III led Josh Downs in 4 of 7 measured 2025 categories to 3.
Josh Downs (Indianapolis, 16 games) against Luther Burden III (Chicago, 15 games). Every number below is measured, not projected.
| Metric | Josh Downs | Luther Burden III |
|---|---|---|
| Target Share | 16.6% ✓ | 11.3% |
| Snap Share | 58.7% | n/a |
| Air Yards Share | 15.0% ✓ | 9.3% |
| Average Depth of Target | 7.49 | 7.67 ✓ |
| Yards Per Target | 6.43 | 10.87 ✓ |
| Receiving Yards | 566 | 652 ✓ |
| WOPR | 0.35 ✓ | 0.23 |
| Receiving EPA | +8.7 | +30.1 ✓ |
Categories won: Josh Downs 3, Luther Burden III 4, 1 with no separation.
Last season is settled. The decision isn't. Our read on this pair covers the 2026 projection for both players, how confident we are and why, the situational changes that don't show up above, and which one we'd take in each scoring format.
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Join the waitlist and buyLuther Burden III led Josh Downs in 4 of 7 measured 2025 categories to 3.
Josh Downs led on target share (16.6% to 11.3%). Josh Downs led on air yards share (15.0% to 9.3%). Luther Burden III led on average depth of target (7.67 to 7.49).
Every figure is 2025 regular-season data from nflverse, published under CC BY 4.0. Nothing on the free half of this page is projected or estimated, and nothing on it came from a paywalled source.
Data from nflverse (nflverse-data), licensed CC BY 4.0. 2025 regular season, snapshot taken July 28, 2026. Source: nflverse-data. Licence: CC BY 4.0. gamedai is an independent analytics platform and is not affiliated with the National Football League.