TE · Green Bay · 2026 outlook
Tucker Kraft scored six touchdowns in eight games in 2025 and averaged 15.3 yards a catch, the best rate of any tight end on this board.
Eight games, six touchdowns, and 15.3 yards a catch. Every part of that line is exciting and every part of it is built on 44 targets, which is the smallest sample in this file. The efficiency is real in the sense that it happened and unproven in the sense that nobody sustains a touchdown every 7.3 targets. His 9.6 percent target share is the lowest of any tight end here by a wide margin, and that is the number that should govern how you draft him: Green Bay was not featuring him, he was converting the chances he got at an extraordinary rate.
So the 2026 question is whether volume follows production, and there is no evidence either way yet. If the target share climbs toward the high teens he is a top-five tight end, because the efficiency does not need to hold at 2025 levels for that to work. If it stays under ten percent he is a touchdown-dependent flier who wins you three weeks and loses you six. The schedule argues for caution: Green Bay rates a 2 out of 5 for tight ends, among the hardest, with a week 11 bye. Take the swing late, not at the price his board rank implies.
No, and nothing about drafting him should assume it. A touchdown every 7.3 targets is not a sustainable rate for any tight end. The useful question is whether the targets go up, because he does not need the same efficiency if the volume arrives.
It is the single biggest caution in this file. Under ten percent means the offense was not looking for him. Every optimistic case requires that number to roughly double, and there is nothing in eight games that establishes it will.
Several rounds after his board rank. You are buying a small sample, a low target share and a hard schedule, wrapped around genuinely exciting efficiency. That combination is worth a late swing at a position where late swings are normal, not a mid-round pick.
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