TE · Arizona
Trey McBride fantasy outlook 2026
Trey McBride commands target volume no tight end has seen since prime Travis Kelce. His touchdown rate is due for sharp positive regression, giving him a path to a record fantasy season.
2026 projections
The numbers,
projected.
| Metric | Projection |
|---|---|
| Games | 17 |
| Targets | 145 |
| Receptions | 110 |
| Receiving yards | 1,150 |
| Receiving TDs | 6 |
| Positional rank (PPR) | TE1–TE2 |
Projections are gamedai editorial estimates for the 2026 season, PPR scoring, and will move with news, injuries, and role changes.
The outlook
What 2026 looks like
for Trey McBride.
McBride's rise has been steady and then sudden: a quiet rookie year behind Zach Ertz, a breakout in 2023, and then a 2024 that produced 111 receptions and over 1,100 yards. That is genuine WR1 volume from the tight end slot, at a position where a 70-catch season makes you a star. The strangest stat in fantasy that year was his two touchdowns, an almost mathematically impossible outcome on that target load, and sure enough the scoring corrected upward in 2025 while the volume never wavered. Arizona rewarded him with a market-setting extension, and Kyler Murray treats him as the offense's true first read over the middle, in the red zone, and on every third down that matters.
For 2026 the profile is as clean as the position offers. McBride earns his stable target share through route-running and a connection with Murray that has survived coordinators. The projections, 105 to 115 catches and 1,100-plus yards, are closer to a floor than a ceiling if the touchdown regression continues; a 10-score season on this volume would break the position's scoring records. Arizona's offense can bog down for stretches, and Murray's health record adds risk. But tight end is the scarcest position in fantasy, and the gap between McBride and the TE5 is larger than the gap between the TE5 and the TE15. Draft him in the second round and stop thinking about the position until January.
Put it to work
Deciding on Trey McBride?
Run the numbers.
Weighing Trey McBride against another option in your lineup? Get a projection-grounded verdict from the free start/sit tool. Fielding a trade offer that involves him? Price both sides with the trade analyzer before you answer. And check where he lands against the rest of the position in the consensus rankings.
More TE outlooks: Brock Bowers · all players
Asked & answered
Straight answers,
no filler.
Is Trey McBride the TE1 in fantasy for 2026?
He has the strongest case. His 2024 produced 111 catches (WR1 volume at the scarcest position in fantasy), and his touchdown rate has already begun correcting toward the mean. The debate with Brock Bowers is nearly a coin flip; McBride's edge is the more stable quarterback situation and the longer track record of elite target share.
Will Trey McBride score more touchdowns in 2026?
The math says yes. His two-touchdown 2024 on 111 catches was one of the most extreme outliers in recent fantasy history, and 2025 already showed the correction. Tight ends with his red-zone target volume historically score eight-plus times a season. Every year the regression is incomplete, his projection carries built-in upside.
Trey McBride or Brock Bowers in fantasy drafts?
Both are worth second-round picks, and the choice is philosophy. McBride offers proven, stable volume in one system with one quarterback; Bowers offers a higher athletic ceiling with more quarterback uncertainty. In PPR, McBride's catch floor is the safer foundation. In leagues that reward ceiling, Bowers's per-touch juice is tempting. Either choice can work, with weekly variance deciding plenty of matchups.
How early should I draft Trey McBride?
The second round is fair, and the late second is a gift. The gap between McBride and the tight ends available four rounds later is roughly five points per game, which is more than the gap between most second-round running backs and their fourth-round replacements. Elite tight end creates the biggest positional edge among early picks.