Tyler Warren's rookie season produced a 21.1 percent target share, the kind of workload usually reserved for a team's top receiver. His touchdown total badly lagged that volume, which is exactly where his 2026 upside sits.
| Metric | Projection |
|---|---|
| Games | 17 |
| Targets | 120 |
| Receptions | 82 |
| Receiving yards | 900 |
| Receiving TDs | 6 |
| Positional rank (PPR) | TE4–TE8 |
Projections are gamedai editorial estimates for the 2026 season, PPR scoring, and will move with news, injuries, and role changes.
Warren's rookie season in Indianapolis was one of the most productive debut years by a tight end in recent memory. He drew 112 targets, a 21.1 percent target share that belongs to a team's top receiver, not a rookie tight end, and turned that volume into 76 catches for 817 yards across all 17 games. He was used almost entirely underneath, with an average depth of target of just 5.38 yards, and then did damage after the catch, piling up 474 yards after the reception on those short and intermediate throws. His snap share of 83.8 percent shows he was never a situational piece. He played on early downs, on third down, and in the red zone.
The one number that lags the rest of the profile is touchdowns. Four scores on 112 targets is a low conversion rate for a player who saw that much volume, and that gap is where the 2026 upside lives. If Indianapolis keeps funneling this much of the offense through him, touchdown regression alone pushes him into weekly TE1 territory before accounting for natural second-year growth. The risk is that a target share this high for a tight end is rare and hard to sustain if the offense adds another weapon, but nothing in the 2025 tape suggests the coaching staff plans to throttle him back.
Weighing Tyler Warren against another option in your lineup? Get a projection-grounded verdict from the free start/sit tool. Fielding a trade offer that involves him? Price both sides with the trade analyzer before you answer. And check where he lands against the rest of the position in the final rankings.
More TE outlooks: Trey McBride · Brock Bowers · Dalton Schultz · AJ Barner · all players
Warren played all 17 games and caught 76 of 112 targets for 817 yards and four touchdowns, with a 21.1 percent target share and an 83.8 percent snap share, both elite marks for a first-year tight end.
The target volume already puts him in the conversation. He commanded a 21.1 percent target share as a rookie, and if Indianapolis maintains that usage, touchdown regression alone should push him into weekly TE1 range.
He was deployed underneath, with an average depth of target of 5.38 yards, and much of his production came after the catch rather than on designed scoring plays. That usage pattern often means touchdowns catch up the following season.
A 21.1 percent target share is unusually high for a tight end, and it is fair to ask whether Indianapolis adds a receiving weapon that pulls some of that volume away. Nothing in 2025 signaled a plan to reduce his role, but the number itself is an outlier worth watching.