QB · Jacksonville · 2026 outlook
Trevor Lawrence ran for nine touchdowns in 2025, more than every quarterback in this tier except Josh Allen, and draws a 4 out of 5 schedule for 2026.
Nine rushing touchdowns is the number that turned Lawrence from a quarterback people had given up on into a top-ten pick, and it is the number most likely to move. Short-yardage scoring for a quarterback is noisy, and nine is well above what his 359 rushing yards would normally produce. He was not running much. He was finishing drives. The passing underneath it was genuinely good, though: 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns across all 17 games, which is a full, healthy, productive season and the first one of his career that looked like the player he was drafted to be.
For 2026 he has the best schedule in the tier outside Philadelphia, a 4 out of 5, with the bye in week 7. The bull case says the passing was real, the running role is real, and an easy slate compounds both. The bear case is that the touchdown-to-rushing-yard ratio regresses and takes 30 points with it, and that 12 interceptions is a lot for a quarterback whose value depends on drives ending in the end zone. He is the most sensible target in this range if you want upside without the injury history that comes attached to the names above him.
Partly. He only ran for 359 yards, so nine scores is a high conversion rate rather than a heavy workload, and conversion rates move around more than volume does. Expect somewhere between five and seven as the honest middle, which still puts him ahead of every pocket passer in this range.
It is a real tiebreaker rather than a headline. Jacksonville has one of the easier quarterback slates in the league for 2026, and unlike most schedule notes this one stacks on a player already trending up. Use it to break a tie with Prescott or Herbert, not to move him past Hurts.
It is the first full, healthy, productive season of his career, so treat it as evidence rather than proof. Seventeen games, 4,007 yards and 29 scores is a real line. Twelve interceptions says there is still volatility in it, and one good year does not erase the several that came before.
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