RB · Philadelphia · 2026 outlook
Saquon Barkley's yards per carry fell to 4.1 in 2025 and his touchdowns dropped to seven, and he still draws one of the easiest 2026 schedules.
This was the disappointing season, and it is worth being precise about why. The volume held up: 280 carries and a 78 percent snap share across 16 games is a full workhorse role that Philadelphia never took away. What fell was everything downstream. Four point one yards a carry is ordinary, seven touchdowns is low for a back with that many carries in this offense, and 37 receptions is not enough to cover the gap in PPR. A back can survive one of those going wrong. All three at once is how a first-round pick becomes a fourth-round return.
For 2026 the argument is that the role is intact and the inputs should improve. Philadelphia rates a 4 out of 5 for running-back schedule, among the softest in the league, and the bye is in week 10. Jalen Hurts taking eight rushing touchdowns himself is the structural problem, and it is not going away, because that is how this offense scores near the goal line. So the realistic case is better efficiency and a touchdown bounce inside the same role, which is worth a couple of rounds of value at his reduced price. The pessimistic case is that 4.1 a carry at his age and mileage is simply what he is now.
Efficiency and scoring, not opportunity. He kept a 78 percent snap share and 280 carries, so the role was never in question. The yards per carry fell to 4.1 and the touchdowns to seven, and those two together are most of the difference between a first-round return and a disappointing one.
Yes, and it is structural rather than a one-year problem. Hurts ran for eight scores in 2025, and Philadelphia's short-yardage offense is built around the quarterback keeping it. Any projection that has Barkley scoring twelve is ignoring how this team finishes drives.
Reasonable rather than obvious. You are buying a confirmed workhorse role and one of the easiest schedules at the position, at a price set by a bad efficiency year. The risk is that the efficiency decline is age rather than variance, and there is no way to tell those apart from one season.
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