QB · Baltimore · 2026 outlook
Lamar Jackson missed four games in 2025 and his rushing touchdowns collapsed to two, which is the cheapest his price has been in years.
Two rushing touchdowns. That is the number that explains the whole 2025 season, and it is the number least likely to repeat. Jackson had scored on the ground at least five times in every prior full season and had hit double digits twice. Goal-line scoring for a running quarterback is famously noisy year to year, and 2025 was the bottom of the range rather than a new baseline. The rest of the line was fine given the games he played: 21 touchdowns against 7 interceptions in 13 games is an efficient rate, and 349 rushing yards in 13 games is a normal pace for him, just without the scores attached.
So the 2026 question is availability plus regression, and both point the same way. He has now missed time in enough seasons that treating him as a 17-game player is optimistic, and drafters have finally priced that in. Baltimore's schedule rates a 3 out of 5 for quarterbacks with a late bye in week 13, which is helpful in a way schedule usually is not: a week 13 bye lands after most leagues have sorted themselves out and before the fantasy playoffs. Take him as the value he has become rather than the consensus pick he used to be. The upside case needs nothing new from him, only the touchdown rate he posted every other year of his career.
Short-yardage scoring is the noisiest thing a quarterback does year to year, and 2025 was the low end of his range rather than a change in role. He still ran for 349 yards in 13 games, which is his normal rate. The carries were there. The scores were not.
A buy at his current price, which is the point. Nothing in the 2025 line says he lost the running role, and the touchdown rate that cratered is the part most likely to come back. What you are paying for is a discount created by one noisy statistic and four missed games.
Real, and worth planning around rather than ignoring. He played 13 games in 2025 and has missed time in several seasons. Draft a backup you are willing to start for two or three weeks instead of a streaming option you would not, and the risk becomes an inconvenience rather than a hole in your season.
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