QB · Los Angeles (AFC) · 2026 outlook
Justin Herbert ran for 498 yards in 2025, by far the most of his career, which changed what kind of fantasy quarterback he is.
For most of his career Herbert was the quarterback who threw for a lot of yards and gave you nothing else, which made him a fine real-life passer and a frustrating fantasy one. The 2025 line broke that pattern. Four hundred and ninety-eight rushing yards is 50 more than Jalen Hurts posted, and it arrived without any drop in the throwing: 3,727 yards and 26 touchdowns in 16 games. Whether that running is a new baseline or one season of scrambling under pressure is the single most useful question you can ask about him, because it is worth roughly 30 fantasy points either way.
The rest of the profile argues for caution. Thirteen interceptions is the highest number in this tier by a wide margin, and interceptions cost you twice in fantasy, once in the minus-two and once in the drives that end. The 2026 schedule rates a 2 out of 5 for quarterbacks, among the harder ones, with the bye in week 7. So you have a quarterback whose new rushing floor is unproven, whose turnover rate is the worst of the group, and whose schedule is unhelpful. He is a good value if the running holds. He is a QB12 if it does not, and there is no way to know in August.
Nobody knows, and that uncertainty is most of his draft-day value. Four hundred and ninety-eight yards is a career high by a wide margin, and rushing yardage that comes from scrambling under pressure tends to move with the offensive line rather than persist on its own. If it holds he is underpriced. If it reverts he is a low-end starter.
About 26 points directly, which is most of a good week, and more than that indirectly through the drives that ended. It is the highest total among the top ten quarterbacks and the clearest weakness in his profile. Efficient passers in this tier throw six or seven.
It is one more reason to let someone else pay for the rushing bounce. A 2 out of 5 slate will not sink a good quarterback, but Herbert already carries two open questions, and this makes a third. Take him a round later than his rank and the risk becomes reasonable.
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