QB · Buffalo · 2026 outlook
Josh Allen scores with his legs at a rate no other quarterback matches, which is why he stays the QB1 even in a season where his passing volume dropped.
The 2025 passing line was the quietest of Allen's prime: 3,668 yards and 25 touchdowns in 16 games, both down from where he sat two years earlier. It did not matter, because the rushing line did what it always does. Fourteen rushing touchdowns is not a quarterback statistic. It's a goal-line running back's season, delivered by a passer, and it is worth 84 points before you count a single throw. That is the whole case for taking him first among quarterbacks. Buffalo can have a mediocre year through the air and he still clears every pocket passer by a wide margin, because the floor is built out of carries inside the five rather than out of volume Buffalo may or may not choose to throw.
For 2026 the schedule reads average, a 3 out of 5, with the bye in week 7. The thing to watch is whether Buffalo goes back to throwing. Twenty-five passing touchdowns is the low end of his range and a normal bounce there is worth another 15 to 20 fantasy points across a season without any change in the running. The risk is the same one it has always been: he takes real hits, and a quarterback who runs 14 touchdowns is a quarterback getting tackled near the goal line 14 times. He has played 16 or 17 games every year regardless, which is why the risk stays theoretical on draft day.
In one-quarterback leagues he goes later than his rank suggests, because the position is deep and the player you pass on to take him is usually a starting running back or receiver. In superflex he is a first-round pick without argument. The rushing touchdowns are the reason: they are the least replaceable thing any quarterback does.
He played 16 games and threw for 3,668 yards with 25 touchdowns, which is a step below his peak seasons. Buffalo leaned on the run more and the receiving group turned over. None of it touched the rushing production, and the rushing production is most of his fantasy edge, so the finish held up better than the passing line did.
It rates a 3 out of 5 for quarterbacks, which is the middle of the league, so it is neither a reason to move him up nor down. The bye falls in week 7. Schedule is a tiebreaker at this position anyway, and there is nobody close enough to him on the board for a tiebreaker to matter.
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