QB · Cincinnati · 2026 outlook
Joe Burrow played eight games in 2025 and threw 17 touchdowns in them, a per-game rate that would have led the league across a full season.
Run the eight games out to seventeen and you get roughly 3,850 yards and 36 touchdowns. That is a top-two passing season, and it is the reason he still sits inside the top five of the board after missing more than half a year. Burrow is the cleanest pure passer in this tier: 17 touchdowns against 5 interceptions, and a receiving group good enough that the volume does not depend on the run game setting anything up. What he does not give you is anything on the ground. Forty-one rushing yards and no rushing scores means every fantasy point has to come through the air, which is a real structural difference from Allen or Jackson.
That difference is the whole argument about where to take him. In a week where the passing game stalls, Allen still gets a goal-line carry and Burrow gets nothing. It makes his weekly floor lower than his season-long rank implies, and it makes him more dependent on Cincinnati's offense staying healthy around him. The 2026 schedule is average at 3 out of 5, with an early bye in week 6, which is the worst place for one because it arrives before you know what you have. Draft him as the passing-volume anchor he is, and understand you are buying ceiling and efficiency rather than the floor a runner gives you.
Less than the raw totals suggest and more than the per-game rate does. He was outstanding when he played, at a pace of roughly 36 touchdowns across a full season. He also has a real injury history now, and a quarterback who does not run has no cheap way to salvage a bad week.
By passing production, comfortably. By fantasy scoring, it depends on your format. He gives up 60 to 80 points a season to the quarterbacks who run, and no amount of passing efficiency closes that gap on its own. He needs the volume and the touchdown rate to both hold up.
It is the least convenient bye on the board. Week 6 arrives before most leagues have sorted out their benches, so you are covering it with whoever you drafted rather than with someone you have since claimed off waivers. Plan the backup pick with that in mind.
These pages are free and stay free. gamedai is free to start, then $9.99 a month or $99.99 a year.
Open gamedai free