RB · Baltimore
Derrick Henry fantasy outlook 2026
Derrick Henry piled up 1,595 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on 307 carries in 2025. Betting on that exact volume again, at an age where backs typically decline, is the real risk in his 2026 price.
2026 projections
The numbers,
projected.
| Metric | Projection |
|---|---|
| Games | 16 |
| Carries | 275 |
| Rushing yards | 1,300 |
| Rushing TDs | 13 |
| Receptions | 15 |
| Positional rank (PPR) | RB4–RB8 |
Projections are gamedai editorial estimates for the 2026 season, PPR scoring, and will move with news, injuries, and role changes.
The outlook
What 2026 looks like
for Derrick Henry.
Henry was the workhorse back for Baltimore in 2025, carrying the ball 307 times for 1,595 yards and 16 touchdowns across all 17 games, a top-tier workload at the position. He did it almost entirely on the ground. His 21 targets and 150 receiving yards confirm he is not part of the passing game in any real way, and his 54.5 percent snap share reflects a rotation on early downs rather than a true every-snap workload, even though the carry total says otherwise. The per-carry efficiency behind that volume, averaging better than five yards a carry across a full season, is rare at a 300-carry workload.
The concern for 2026 is workload and age. A running back carrying the ball 307 times in a season is a heavy bet on durability, and Henry will be well into his thirties by the time the 2026 season kicks off. History says backs who take on this much volume at this age see a step down the following year, whether from a lingering injury, a reduced role, or a natural decline in explosiveness. The realistic projection trims the carries and the touchdown total from the 2025 peak while still keeping him firmly in the RB1 conversation on volume alone, as long as Baltimore does not change its offensive approach.
Put it to work
Deciding on Derrick Henry?
Run the numbers.
Weighing Derrick Henry against another option in your lineup? Get a projection-grounded verdict from the free start/sit tool. Fielding a trade offer that involves him? Price both sides with the trade analyzer before you answer. And check where he lands against the rest of the position in the final rankings.
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Asked & answered
Straight answers,
no filler.
What is Derrick Henry's contract status heading into 2026?
As of August 2026, Henry is on Baltimore's roster. This page does not speculate on future contract moves; it reflects the current roster and on-field role only.
What were Derrick Henry's rushing stats in 2025?
He finished with 307 carries for 1,595 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns across all 17 games, a per-carry average north of five yards for the full season.
Where can I find Derrick Henry's game log?
Full game-by-game splits are not part of this projection page, but the 2025 season totals are 307 carries, 1,595 rushing yards, and 16 rushing touchdowns over 17 games with Baltimore.
Is Derrick Henry a good running back to draft in 2026?
Yes, he remains in the RB1 conversation on volume even after accounting for expected age-related decline. The 2026 projection trims his 2025 peak numbers but still has him among the position's leaders in carries.
Will Derrick Henry decline in 2026 given his age and workload?
Some decline is the realistic expectation. A 307-carry season at his age is a heavy workload, and backs who carry that much volume that late in their careers historically see reduced production the following year, even when they remain productive overall.