WR · New Orleans · 2026 outlook
Chris Olave caught 100 passes for 1,163 yards and nine touchdowns in 2025, his first fully healthy season, on a 27.6 percent target share.
The season people had been waiting for. A hundred receptions on 156 targets is a 64 percent catch rate, and 27.6 percent of New Orleans's targets is the workload of a genuine number one. What makes it notable is that it came across 16 games, because availability had been the open question on him for years rather than talent. Nine touchdowns on that volume is a normal rate, not an outlier, so unlike several players in this file there is no obvious regression waiting in the scoring column.
For 2026 the honest read is that the profile is now boring in the good way: high target share, full season, average touchdown rate, neutral schedule at 3 out of 5 for receivers with a week 8 bye. The risk that remains is the offense around him. A 27.6 percent share of a limited passing attack produces fewer points than a 22 percent share of a good one, and New Orleans has been the former for a while. He is priced as a back-end top-ten receiver, which is roughly right: you are buying the volume and accepting that the offense caps how much that volume is worth.
Mostly the latter, which is the more useful answer. The per-game rates were in line with what he had shown before. What changed is that he played 16 games instead of missing a third of the year, and 100 catches is what his usual rate looks like when it runs for a full season.
It is the ceiling on his value. Target share tells you how much of a pie a receiver gets, not how big the pie is. His 27.6 percent share produced 1,163 yards; the same share in a high-volume passing offense would produce meaningfully more.
Yes, and that is a point in his favour. Nine scores on 156 targets is an ordinary rate rather than a lucky one, so there is no built-in decline waiting the way there is for players who scored well above their volume.
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