QB · Chicago · 2026 outlook
Caleb Williams played all 17 games in 2025 and threw for 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns, the most durable season of anyone in this tier.
Every quarterback ranked around Williams missed time in 2025. He did not, and seventeen games at 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns is a complete season nobody has to squint at. The interception number is the part that should change how you read him: seven picks against 27 touchdowns is a genuinely careful year from a quarterback whose reputation coming into the league was the opposite. Add 388 rushing yards and three scores and you have a passer who contributes on the ground without being a designed runner, which is the middle ground between the Burrow profile and the Allen one.
The case for 2026 is that this is the floor rather than the peak, and the price does not reflect a full healthy season. Chicago's schedule rates an average 3 out of 5 with the bye in week 10, which sits well ahead of the fantasy playoffs. What would move him up a tier is red-zone passing volume. Twenty-seven touchdowns on nearly 4,000 yards is a normal rate rather than a good one, and quarterbacks in his situation who add four or five scores without changing anything else jump several places in the final rankings. Draft him as the safe second-tier starter and treat the jump as a free option rather than the plan.
He was one in 2025 on the strength of playing every game, and that is not a small thing at a position where most of the tier above him missed time. Whether he climbs higher depends on touchdown rate rather than yardage. The 3,942 yards are already there.
They are the difference between him and a pure pocket passer of similar volume. Three hundred and eighty-eight yards and three scores is not Josh Allen territory, but it is roughly 60 fantasy points that a quarterback like Burrow simply does not have. It raises his weekly floor in games where the passing stalls.
A drop in games played, which has not happened yet, or a repeat of the modest touchdown rate combined with less yardage. He is priced as a starter rather than as a swing, so the failure case is not a collapse. It is a season that looks like 2025 while the quarterbacks drafted after him post better ones.
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